An AI investment bubble could burst soon, but that wouldn’t really change my view on the core questions: How hard is it to build AGI? How close are we to AI that transforms the economy and creates serious risks?

I actually hope the bubble does burst, because it would likely slow down the competitive race between AI companies and give us more time to prepare. But whether the bubble bursts or not will probably come down to (in the grand scheme of things) fairly small differences in AI capabilities over the next couple of years.